A complete, systematic approach is presented for the analysis and characterization of fouling and cleaning in refinery heat exchangers. Bringing together advanced thermo‐hydraulic dynamic models, some new formulations, and a method for dynamic analysis of plant data, it allows: extracting significant information from the data; evaluating the fouling state of the units based on thermal measurements and pressure drops, if available; identifying the range of deposit conductivity leading to realistic pressure drops, if pressure measurements are unavailable; estimating key fouling and ageing parameters; estimating the effectiveness of cleaning and surface conditions after a clean; and predicting thermal and hydraulic performance with good accuracy for other periods/exchangers operating in similar conditions. An industrial case study demonstrates the performance prediction in seamless simulations that include partial and total cleanings for over 1000 days operation. The risks of using thermal effects alone and the significant advantages of including pressure drop measurements are highlighted. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 63: 984–1001, 2017