This paper analyzes the provision costs of flexible system components in the German electricity system based on a standardized methodology. As a result, time-differentiated cost potential curves for 2015 and 2030 are developed, means of which the energy related costs of the market- and system-conducive flexibility provision can be compared and classified in an overall context.
For this purpose, the deployment of flexible system component is subdivided into three key phases: capacity-provision costs, call-off costs and deployment follow-up costs. From this, three congruent cost groups are deduced, according to which the various cost components can be identified, resulting in the quantification of flexibility provision costs. Besides fossil-thermal power plants, various other flexibility options are analyzed such as cogeneration, biogas power plants, pumped storage and river dam power plants as well as controllable loads in industry.
In order to subsequently depict the partly negative provision costs in diagrams, the conventional form of presentation of the merit order is extended along the ordinate to illustrate negative values on the one hand; on the other hand the abscissa is arranged in reverse order for illustrating negative flexibility. The results are two connected graphs by which the provision costs of various flexibility options can be easily compared.
By determining a framework scenario for development of the German electricity system by 2030, the future perspective of the flexibility provision in Germany is analyzed. From the results it can be concluded, that even in times of a progressive dismantling of the coal power plants the German power plant park will only increase its flexibility when a simultaneous increase of modern natural gas-fired power plants is assumed. In this case the provision costs of positive flexibility are increasing, which for example can be reasoned by increasing future fuel prices. However, a relatively low-cost provision of flexibility can be made available in future for example by transforming the cogeneration towards a generally electricity-driven operation, thus a constant or often even higher level of flexibility in the market can be achieved.