The problem of decline in the number of project managers and in their quality has been widely discussed. The proposed approach bases the learning goal evaluation index on the student group projects. The index uses item response theory that evaluates items regardless of the test used. Comparing the evaluation of the applied educational products with that of student retention from lecture tests and midterm and final exams resulted in nearly the same curves. The results showed that both evaluation methods test nearly the same characteristics. This study defined success as achievement of learning goal and compared the learning achievement goal with the assumed capability of the work group: approximately 32% of examinees in the 7th group work demonstrated an ability level below that required to achieve the learning goal. This study revealed that it is possible to predict whether a student will pass a lecture test before a periodic test.