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The Earth is clearly warming. Mounting evidence from around the globe has removed virtually any serious doubt over this fact, and also over whether the main culprit is human emissions of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). These emissions have been the product of a march towards better economic living standards, and for much of the world this march has led people out of a life of hunger...
There are roughly 1 billion food insecure people in the world today, each having this status because food is unavailable to them, because it is unaffordable, or because they are too unhealthy to make use of it – or some combination of the three. Assessing the potential effects of climate change on food security requires understanding the underlying determinants of these three aspects of food security...
This chapter describes global climate models and their output. The current approaches for analyzing their simulations, characterizing the range of likely future outcomes, and making projections relevant for impact analysis are described, specifically referring to the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We provide a summary of future projections of average temperature...
To predict the possible impacts of global warming and increased CO2 on agriculture, scientists use computer-based models that attempt to quantify the best-available knowledge on plant physiology, agronomy, soil science and meteorology in order to predict how a plant will grow under specific environmental conditions. The chapter reviews the basic features of crop models with emphasis on physiological...
Time series of annual crop production levels, at scales ranging from experimental trials to regional production totals, are widely available and represent a useful opportunity to understand crop responses to weather variations. This chapter discusses the main techniques of building models from time series and the tradeoffs involved in the many decisions required in the process. A worked example using...
Crop choices vary by climate, e.g., Florida specializes in citrus crops while Iowa specializes in corn and soybeans. The advantage of a cross-sectional analysis is that it incorporates how farmers adapt to existing difference in average climate conditions across space. A potential downfall is omitted variable bias. A panel analysis can overcome omitted variable bias by including fixed effects to capture...
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) in this century will alter crop yield quantity and quality. It is important to understand the magnitude of the expected changes and the mechanisms involved in crop responses to elevated [CO2] in order to adapt our food systems to the committed change in atmospheric [CO2] and to accurately model future food supply. Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE)...
The potential for agricultural systems to adapt to climate change is at once both promising and poorly understood. This chapter reviews possible producer and consumer responses to a changing climate, the ability of these responses to offset otherwise negative impacts on food security, and the role of public and private institutions in investing in adaptation where individual responses are insufficient...
Climate change is expected to reduce global crop productivity, although the impact will vary region to region. At many locations, particularly those at lower latitudes, the environment will become drier and hotter, which will reduce crop yields and potentially change the incidence of insect pests and diseases. These climatic changes are also expected to alter the nutritional properties and processing...
The main conclusions from recent global and regional assessments are reviewed, with an emphasis on China, India, Africa, and the United States. Most studies have provided primarily “best-guess” point estimates, often supplemented with a few sensitivity analyses, but without a comprehensive measure of uncertainties. Although some useful lessons have been learned, most existing estimates of food security...
Some suggestions for future research on food availability, access, and utilization impacts of climate change are presented. Top priorities include better characterization of uncertainties in climate and crop responses, examining income responses to yield changes, and quantifying links between incomes, health, and food security. Many of these questions will require a more interdisciplinary approach...
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