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In this paper, we discuss the time series properties of a novel daily series of aggregate employment creation and destruction as registered by the Social Security in Spain. We focus on the period of economic recovery after the 2012 Labour Market Reform. Our concern for high-frequency data is motivated by the recent upsurge of labour contracts of a very short duration, which seems to have exacerbated...
In this paper we introduce new Dynamic Conditional Score (DCS) models for the Skew-Gen-t (Skewed Generalized t) and NIG (Normal-Inverse Gaussian) distributions as alternatives to the recent DCS models for the Student’s-t and EGB2 (Exponential Generalized Beta of the second kind) distributions, respectively. The DCS models we propose include stochastic local level, stochastic seasonality, and irregular...
This paper estimates the GDP impact of legislated tax changes in Spain using a newly constructed narrative record for the period 1986–2015. Our baseline estimates suggest that a 1% of GDP increase in exogenous taxes depresses output by around 1.3% after 1 year, this negative effect fading away at more distant horizons. We also find that the effects of changes in indirect taxes are larger and that,...
The tourism industry, in particular the hotel sector, is a highly competitive market. In this context, it is important that an hotel chain operates efficiently if it wants to improve or maintain its market position. The objective of this work is to compare the relative efficiency of hotel chains operating in Spain. To do this, we have designed a stochastic frontier model to measure revenue efficiency...
Using a dataset of 3540 economists working in 2007 in 125 of the best academic centers in 22 countries, this paper presents some evidence on spatial mobility patterns in Spain and other countries conditional on some personal, department, and country characteristics. There are productivity and other reasons for designing a scientific policy with the aims of attracting foreign talent (brain gain), minimizing...
This paper surveys recent research on the macroeconomic implications of demographic and technological changes. Lower fertility and increasing longevity have implications on the age population structure and, therefore, on the balance between savings and investment. Jointly with meagre productivity growth, this implies a low natural rate of interest that conditions the effectiveness of monetary and...
We present a dynamic model of competition in the media industry in which behavioral media outlets compete for the publication of scoops, and both the publication of scoops and their veracity determine an outlet’s future audience. We study the dynamics of the audiences of outlets and how those dynamics relate to two issues: how harsh a society is with the publication of false stories, and how similar...
Efficiency comparison of ad valorem and unit taxes has been traditionally based on consumer welfare. However, if the tax instrument also affects the distribution of firms over their productivities, the policy maker may be concerned about the implications on aggregate productivity as well. This paper makes an efficiency comparison of ad valorem and unit taxes by allowing the distribution of firms to...
We examine the incidence on household consumption of the introduction of tax incentives to retirement saving. First, using data from a panel of tax returns we document that most contributions to pension funds are by older/high-income individuals. Then we use panel data from a consumption survey spanning the period 1985 and 1991 to find that there is substantial heterogeneity in the response of household...
In this paper, we evaluate the impact of a minimum income scheme (MIS) in the Basque Country, one of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions. In particular, we assess whether the policy delays entry into employment for recipients, as well as the extent to which activating policies aimed at enabling recipients of the MIS to enter employment work. To do so, we use administrative data of the universe of individuals...
This paper contributes to the literature on majority voting over fiscal policies. We depart from the standard model in two dimensions. First, besides redistributing income, the government uses the net tax revenue to finance the provision of goods and services that become in-kind transfers to the citizens. By deciding on the composition of this expenditure (education, health, law-and-order, etc.),...
In this article we quantify the aggregate, distributional and welfare consequences of investment expensing and progressivity in Hall and Rabushka type of flat-tax reforms of the US economy. To do so we use a heterogeneous households model featuring both life cycle and dynastic elements as well as nonlinear wage dynamics. Our findings suggest that moving toward a progressive consumption-based flat-tax...
In this study, we assess the relationship between several tax items and consumption and income inequality levels. For OECD countries between 1980 and 2015, we use panel data techniques and find tax threshold values regarding inequality levels and consumption. In particular, we obtain threshold values for social security contributions between 9.50 and 11.80% (of GDP), for long-run consumptions, while...
This paper studies the role of intangible capital investment in the timing of optimal capital income tax reforms. Within an infinitely lived worker–capitalist model as in Judd (J Public Econ 28:59–83, 1985), we consider two different economies: one in which capitalists devote physical investment, management time and intangible capital investment to build capital; and a second one in which capitalists...
We study how taxable income responds to changes in marginal tax rates, using as a main source of identifying variation three large reforms to the Spanish personal income tax implemented in the period 1999–2014. The most reliable estimates of the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) with respect to the net-of-tax rate for this period are between 0.45 and 0.64. The ETI is about three times larger for...
In this paper, we use administrative data on tax returns to characterize the distributions of before- and after-tax income, tax liabilities and tax credits in Spain for individuals and households. We use the most recent available data, 2015 for individuals and 2013 for households, but also discuss how the income distribution and taxes have changed since 2002. We also estimate effective tax functions...
We propose a method to capture the effect of tax reforms on consumer’s readiness to buy using Google searches as a proxy. We use the Spanish 2010 and 2012 VAT reforms as a case of study. We use a regression discontinuity design taking advantage of the fact that the Spanish 2010 and 2012 VAT reforms had a sharp implementation date, which implies that from one day to another the tax rate for most goods...
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