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A growing amount of variable generation is being connected to the distribution network, where it is not directly monitored or controlled by the system operator. This introduces a greater degree of uncertainty into bulk system operations. For short-term operational planning tasks, such as the prediction of network congestions, it is becoming increasingly necessary to forecast demand/generation profiles...
Ultra-short-term forecasting results of the loads of distribution transformers are one of the main sources of the pseudo measurements in state estimation programs for distribution networks, and the forecasting accuracy seriously affects the state estimation results. This paper describes a robust exponentially weighted load forecast model to improve the forecasting accuracy. Firstly, a load change...
In electricity markets, credit collateral requirements for participants have traditionally been set based on historical price data that may not properly reflect future risks. A new predictive approach to determining credit risk is proposed in this paper. For any market that prices reserves in the real-time market, correlation exists between available reserve levels and real-time energy prices. This...
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