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Under electricity market operation, the competitiveness of wind power generation may be reduced because of the stochastic nature of the wind resource, which often results in increased regulation costs. The negative impact associated to the stochastic nature of the wind resource may be reduced by coupling the wind farm with energy storage facilities, thus constituting a virtual power plant. In this...
This paper provides an approach to the problem of power distribution network renewal planning where the challenge to the decision maker is to determine the most cost- effective multi-year development plan in terms of what feeders in the network to refurbish, by which renewal alternative and at what time in the planning horizon. The problem is subjected to several constraints of service requirements...
Most electric power utilities utilize probability methods in the planning and operation of generating capacity. Deterministic criteria, however, are usually used in the planning and operation of composite generation and transmission or bulk electric power systems. The most commonly applied deterministic criteria dictate that specific credible outages should not result in system failure. The traditional...
This paper describes a method for predicting circuit breaker time-to-failures using a probabilistic operational model that incorporates generation capacity growth. Increases in generation capacity may cause fault current levels to approach or exceed circuit breaker ratings. This condition may increase the probability of a circuit breaker failure. Circuit breaker failures result in common-mode multiple...
The impact of a pulse load charging event on a notional all-electric ship is investigated through simulation in the context of uncertainty in the parameters of the system and event. In order to efficiently carry out the study, the system is modeled on a large-scale parallel processor simulator. A surrogate modeling approach is used to characterize the behavior of the system for the purposes of sensitivity...
This paper proposes an optimization algorithm suitable to choose the optimal number and position of the measurement devices in active distribution networks. In active distribution networks distributed energy resources may be controlled and the topology modified to optimize power flows and to solve critical contingencies. The proposed algorithm, based on the techniques of the dynamic programming, has...
The latest political initiatives on energy saving are forcing distributors to implement actions that increase the energy efficiency of their system. Among these actions distributors can drive the development of the distributed generation (DG) on their networks. The inclusion of the energy saving goal among the terms of the objective function makes the DG allocation problem more and more complicated,...
This work presents a procedure to validate sags monitoring results based on a stochastic assessment of voltage sag indices. The main practical use of this methodology is to analyze the accuracy of sag indices obtained from very short monitoring periods. Probabilistic models of several factors can be taken into account: lines and busbars fault rate, pre-fault voltage, fault type distribution, fault...
This paper describes the mid-continent area power pool (MAPP) transmission equipment outage data collection scheme and presents bulk transmission line average outage statistics for forced outage category for the 230 kV and above systems computed using the data for the ten-year operating period from 1991 to 2000. In addition, a causal and seasonal contribution to forced outages of bulk transmission...
This paper introduces the infeed modeling requirements for investigations on energy storage in power systems with complex spatial dependence structures between stochastic infeeds. It is shown that synthesizing multivariate time series, including correct modeling of persistence and spatial dependence, is crucial for obtaining statistically relevant results. A suited new multivariate time series model...
In power system planning and operation, accurate assessment of reliability worth is essential for making informed decisions. One common simplification when modeling power system reliability is assuming constant failure rates and non time-varying restoration times. However, historical outages show differently; failure rates and restoration times for especially overhead lines are dependent upon time-varying...
This paper presents an Bayesian approach for the estimation of sojourn time distribution parameters. Expert opinion and condition monitoring data can be used as source of information for the estimation. It is shown how expert opinion and data can be combined and how estimates for the parameters can be calculated by means of numerical methods. It is also discussed how expert uncertainty and systematic...
A Markovian approach already developed in a previous paper by some of the authors to evaluate the energy production and power availability of a wind turbine is utilized to size a hybrid wind-diesel stand alone system. The wind turbine power time variability is taken into account by means of a discrete reduced number of contiguous power classes, each corresponding to an opportune range of values, starting...
There is an increasing trend towards using the concept of risk assessment as an important tool in distribution system asset management. In an ongoing R&D project (RISK DSAM), the main objective is to investigate how information about risk exposure can improve maintenance and reinvestment decisions in an electrical distribution company. As the popularity of Bayesian networks (BN) is increasing,...
Technology of control command system (or instrumentation and control I&C equipment) has evolved dramatically during last 30 years from electromechanical relay, analog relay to digital relay. Then utilities have to maintain different type of devices. Risks linked to this fact are ageing effect on protection relays and technical life time of piece of equipment. After 20 years of use, manufacturers...
Spinning contingency reserve is idle capacity connected to the system to ensure reliable system operations in the case of equipment outages. The reserve has an economic value since it reduces the outage costs. In several electricity markets, reserve demand functions have been implemented to take into account the value of reserve in the market clearing process. These often take the form of a step-down...
Fuel diversification implies the selection of a mix of generation technologies for long-term electricity generation. The goal is to strike a good balance between reduced costs and reduced risk. The method of analysis that has been advocated and adopted for such studies is the mean-variance portfolio analysis pioneered by Markowitz (1952). However the standard mean-variance methodology, does not account...
This paper introduces a method for designing a standalone photovoltaic system to improve the load point reliability, extend the operation life, and minimize the design cost. This approach examines the impacts of solar panel sizes, tilt angles and battery volumes toward load point reliability, as well as the expected system life, by using real insolation data in a given location and random load burdens...
This paper describes a probabilistic approach for assessing the criticality of bulk transmission system components in the de-regulated electricity market. The proposed method is based on the analysis performed by the Hydro One probabilistic composite system evaluation program and use of a simplified reliability model for the transmission system network. The method accounts for random failures of system...
This paper proposes a new design guideline for reliability improvement of distribution networks using distributed energy resource (DER). The proposed guideline is advised to maintain CDI values of all customers under a certain pre-defined threshold value. The impact of the switching devices failure on the reliability is also considered and proper corrections are made on various threshold values within...
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