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Wind power forecasting is one of the most important aspects for power system with integration of wind power. In this work, Component GARCH-M (CGARCH-M) model is presented for short-term wind power forecasting (STWPF). Moreover, asymmetric and distributional considerations are taken into account to generalize the CGARCH-M type models. The CGARCH-M type models can decompose the volatility structure...
Wind power is uncertain and fluctuating. To address its impact on system, a jointed scheduling model of wind power/thermal generation/ energy storage system (ESS) is established in this paper, based on bi-level programming (BLP). Operations of different types of power sources are optimized in the upper-level, while unit commitment of thermal generation is optimized in the lower-level. These two layers...
The future power grid will need to incorporate systems and processes with a higher degree of variability and randomness due to the penetration of renewable energy resources and the increase of energy demand. Forecasting variables in a more uncertain environment poses new challenges and revisions of the existing forecasting methodologies will have to be made to maintain forecasting accuracy. This paper...
Risk-limiting dispatch (RLD) is a promising approach to deal with the increasing uncertainty in both supply side and demand side of power systems. However, the conventional RLD has two drawbacks: i) it is difficult to set the value of acceptable risk level; ii) it has limitations to address the scenario with more realistic but non-Gaussian and heavy-tailed renewable output forecasting errors. To resolve...
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