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Seasonal adjustment plays a significant role in the analysis of current social and economic conditions, particularly in determining the stages of the business cycle at which the economy stands. Nowadays the most popular method for seasonal adjustment in time series forecasting is the X-12-ARIMA algorithm, etc. All of these methods are sophisticated and difficult to understand and not suitable for...
In view of the distribution feature of decision-making between owner and contractors, a novel decision-making framework based on negotiation is proposed. The owner and contractors negotiate on completion time in order to obtain the expected completion probability of a project with the constraint of cost. Considering the dynamic property of risks, Markov process is used in each subproject. The evaluation...
The main factors that affect the Determine of spare parts varieties are analyzed, the introduction of grey situation decision method to solve the varieties of spare parts in order to determine the maintenance level, a new spare parts varieties quantitative method is provided.
To process the uncertainty of decision-making environment and the real-time during the tactical decision of UAV medium-range air combat, a hybrid tactical decision-making method based on rule sets and Fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) was proposed. By studying the process of UAV air combat, the main factors that affect the tactical decision were analyzed. A corresponding FBN and expert system were built...
For the problem of the bounded rationality newsboy's order decision, we use the CVaR risk measurement criteria, the Arrow-Pratt risk aversion parameter and utility function, to establish a more realistic bounded rationality newsboy model, and optimized the model with the buy-back contract and revenue sharing contract. Result shows that the existence of bounded rationality deteriorate the supply chain's...
The paper investigates the Relative Advancement Degree of Difficulty (RAD2) problem to evaluate the feasibility and effectivity of the technology. Firstly, the study reviews concept of Technology Readiness Level (TRL), Earned Value Management (EVM). Then, an improved method was developed by integrating the impact on cost, schedule and technical performance to calculate the RAD2. With the result of...
There are two key activities for an effective supply chain, one of which is the supplier evaluation and the other one is the supplier selection. In this paper, focusing on the dynamic fuzzy problems involved in the process of the supplier evaluation and selection, we proposed a dynamic fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making new method. Specifically, we would fully describe the decision-making...
Emergency response decision-making is critical for emergency management. With the involvement of numerous personnel, agencies, equipment, resources and materials, it is challenging to organize, coordinate, and development action plans under an urgent situation. Due to the features of cooperativeness, dynamic, timeliness, and hierarchy, emergency response decision-making problem cannot be effectively...
The Last Planner System is a very important and systematic method that influences the achievement of lean construction. With the theory of emergence science, this paper analyzed the emergence mechanism of the last planner system from the perspective of group decision-making, information change and self-organization; then, how to realize the potencies of the last planner system so as to attain much...
In this paper, we define the concept of linguistic variable with interval confidence level (LVICL) and some operational laws of LVICLs. Based on these operational laws, we propose some new aggregation operators, such as the interval confidence linguistic weighted arithmetic averaging (ICLWAA) operator, interval confidence linguistic ordered weighted averaging (ICLOWA) operator and interval confidence...
With respect to the limitations of the distance measures of hesitant fuzzy sets, a new Hausdorff distance for hesitant fuzzy sets is proposed. The hesitant fuzzy similarity measure and the hesitant fuzzy similarity matrix are developed based on the new distance. Then, a direct clustering method to cluster hesitant fuzzy sets is proposed. Finally, a numerical example together with a comparison analysis...
Markov chains play an important role in the decision analysis. In the practical applications, decision-makers often need to decide in an uncertain condition which the traditional decision theory can't deal with. In this paper, we combine Markov chains with the fuzzy sets to build a fuzzy Markov chain model using a triangle fuzzy number to denote the transition probability. A method is given to compute...
Risk evaluation of equipment development, it's the key point to make sure the success of the whole equipment development. Firstly, the paper respectively provided methods of how to transform three typical forms of uncertainty risk information into triangular fuzzy number. Then, the paper established risk assessment models based on triangular fuzzy number and TOPSIS. Finally, the paper tested the above...
Suppliers evaluation and selection is one of the most critical activities of purchasing management in a supply chain, because of the key role of suppliers' performance in achieving the objectives. And it is a multi-criteria decision-making in which the objectives are not equally important. Supplier evaluation and selection decisions are complicated by the fact that various criteria must be considered...
Based on the two-tuple linguistic evaluation method, this paper proposes a consensus model to alleviate conflict problems in distributed Command and Control (C2) decision making. This model mainly involves three phases: computing consensus degrees, controlling the consensus state and feedback mechanism. In this proposed model, consensus degree among deciders is obtained. And the preference distances...
Considering the development situation of each object in different time interval in the dynamic evaluation problem, we provide a method with the feature of reward and punishment. In this method, the evaluation information participates in evaluation in the form of a whole vector. Then the timing weights are determined by the TOPSIS method, which can express the purpose of reward and punishment. Based...
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