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This paper proposes a novel technique to forecast day-ahead electricity prices based on Panel Cointegration (PC). The current researches on the electricity price forecasting focus on the analysis of unstable economic time series. However, due to the difference of the allocation of power resource and consumption in different regions, the time series of electricity consumption and sales price in a single...
Network pricing analysis has always been complex for distribution networks due to the data size involved. Simplified reference network models help to reduce the data to be handled, and hence the associated complexity. These models provide a test system to assess the investment consequences of applying different network charging approaches and analyze the impact of such approaches on customer end prices...
Locational marginal price (LMP) is a fundamental principle in the majority of electricity markets and is increasingly being employed at a number of ISO's such as PJM, california ISO, etc. It is essential to obtain the accurate value of LMPs. This paper presents an OPF formulation with a composite dynamic load models which is a composite of ZIP and induction motor loads. An improved locational marginal...
Our analysis shows that there is likely to be minor short term risk or reward for electric utilities with respect to electric vehicle adoption, but also that significant long term value or risk exists, depending on how judiciously utilities manage pricing, charging and infrastructure. The margin of difference between profit and loss lies with the extent to which customer adoption is clustered, whether...
In the present work, the problem of energy market price clearing and generation company (Genco) strategic bidding is considered in the framework of existing day-ahead markets with system marginal price auction. The situation of imperfect competition arising when one of the Gencos is large enough to exert market power is considered in detail, showing what bidding behaviors are to be expected when such...
This paper combines two previous techniques, reference independent LMP decomposition and fictitious nodal demand (FND), to achieve an improved LMP model. The combined model distributes system losses in each individual line such that there is no mismatch in every bus. Also, the reference independent LMP decomposition is still preserved..
This paper presents a forecasting technique to predict next-day electricity spot prices and volatilities. Our technique combines a fundamental model formulated as supply stack modeling, with an econometric analysis based on the GARCH methodology. Empirical results from the wholesale electricity market of Great Britain are discussed.
In current deregulated power markets, prices are determined in the economic dispatch problem with fixed unit commitment decisions. Start-up and no-load costs are not included in the prices and significant uplift payments have to be paid to generators. The convex hull pricing model was developed to include the fixed costs in setting prices by solving the dual of the unit commitment and economic dispatch...
This paper proposes a new mechanism to give added incentive to invest in new capacities in deregulated electricity markets. An optimization problem to maximize long term social welfare includes binary variables for the building of new facilities, and continuous variables for generation, i.e. the model is a mixed integer nonlinear program. The new mechanism also includes a new approach to calculate...
Electricity markets are currently evolving to accommodate large scale penetration of wind generation. In this research, potential changes to the classification and role of wind generators in the Single Electricity Market (SEM), the market for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, are examined. The effect of wind generators opting to become price-making and the potential for wind generators...
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