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Defining and evaluating operational equilibriums in real-time market, constrained by operation risks and economical biddings, is in the center of market operation and its enhancement. For example, in the two-settlement market design, reliability unit commitment is an important stage to bridge day-ahead market with Real-time system operation, which commits additional units to cover forecasted load...
Summary form only given: In power market studies, the forecast of locational marginal price (LMP) relies on the load forecasting results from the viewpoint of planning. It is well known that short-term load forecasting results always carry certain degree of errors mainly due to the random nature of the load. At the same time, LMP step changes occur at critical load levels (CLLs). Therefore, it is...
Advances in the development of electric vehicles, along with policy incentives will see a wider uptake of this technology in the transport sector in future years. However, the widespread implementation of electric vehicles could lead to adverse effects on power system networks, especially existing distribution networks. This work investigates some of the potential impacts from various levels of uncontrolled...
A key requirement of electric system operation is the ability of system operators to manage all types of variability and uncertainty. Integrating large-scale wind power into electric system operation increases variability and uncertainty that can impact supply and demand balance performance requirements. Many Independent System Operators (ISOs) are in the process of addressing these challenges. The...
In support of work to assess and ensure the reliability and resiliency of Florida's power generation, transmission, and distribution system as load and generation evolve in future years, groundwork is presented for the development of an open, dynamic model of the Florida grid and geographically distributed projections for growth in load and generation within the state. Using load forecasts provided...
A variety of wind forecasting services are available from multiple providers. Some system operators are even contemplating the use of an ensemble of multiple forecasting services, as is done by some European system operators, since improved wind forecasting has obvious benefits. But even so, the issues around how we use the forecasts to address operational problems are still evolving and we have much...
The field of distribution system analysis has made significant advances in the past ten years. It is now standard practice when performing a power flow simulation to use an algorithm that is capable of unbalanced per-phase analysis. Recent work has also focused on examining the need for time-series simulations instead of examining a single time period, i.e., peak loading. One area that still requires...
Very short-term load forecasting predicts the load over one hour into the future in five-minute steps and performs the moving forecast every five minutes. To quantify forecasting accuracy, the confidence interval is estimated in real-time. An effective prediction with a small associated confidence interval is important for area generation control and resource dispatch, and can help the operator further...
This paper presents updated results from a Monte Carlo simulation method of operational needs created by variable generation renewables coupled with a Production Simulation methodology to assess whether the California ISO's existing generation fleet can provide the needed flexibility for ramping, load following and Regulation under a 20% Renewable Portfolio Standard. The production simulation methodology...
The Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) supports an orderly development of the renewable energy potential on the islands. To attain this goal, PREPA is conducting science-based analytical studies and research to increase knowledge on these technologies. As part of this effort, PREPA commissioned the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to assess the potential impacts that different penetration...
Demand response is a reduction in the consumption of electricity by customers from their expected consumption in response to reliability or price triggered signals. Enabled by advanced metering infrastructure and other smart grid technologies, it is expected to be a crucial mechanism to compensate system uncertainties and the associated risks including those related to intermittent renewable generation...
The uncertainty associated with load forecast is a challenging issue in reliability evaluation and transmission planning. The uncertainty cannot be always represented by a probability distribution. This paper presents a method to include a fuzzy load model in reliability evaluation of mixed AC-DC supply systems. The presented fuzzy load model and three-state probability model for HVDC poles can be...
Among various types of battery energy storage systems (BESSs), NAS battery is the most promising products. NAS battery is a commercial product implemented widely in the world. The first purpose of BESS was improvement of load factors. The second purpose is improvement of power quality, especially against voltage-sag. The recent interest is oriented to utilize BESS to mitigate the intermittency of...
Our analysis shows that there is likely to be minor short term risk or reward for electric utilities with respect to electric vehicle adoption, but also that significant long term value or risk exists, depending on how judiciously utilities manage pricing, charging and infrastructure. The margin of difference between profit and loss lies with the extent to which customer adoption is clustered, whether...
The analysis on the characteristics of volatility can help to give a more precise description in load time series and may contribute to load forecasting performance. In this study, first, asymmetric effect in load time series is investigated, and the asymmetric ARCH type models, including EGARCH, TARCH, PARCH, and TCGARCH, are introduced as feasible methods for short-term load forecasting. Second,...
Wind power forecasts for 21 representative wind farms provided in real-time to the Transmission System Operator in Ireland have for the first time been verified against actual wind generation data. Forecast data were generated using an ensemble prediction system. For forecast lengths up to 23 hours, the mean absolute error for individual wind farms was typically about 13% (normalised to installed...
For an electric power system to meet the demand for electricity depends not only on subsystems of generation, transmission and distribution, but also on the ability to supply primary energy sources such as natural gas, oil and coal. The effects of a contingency in some of the subsystems, including supply networks, can propagate and affect system operations in terms of availability and price. In a...
Short-term electric load modeling and forecasting has been intensively studied during the past 50 years. With the emerging development of smart grid technologies, demand side management (DSM) starts to attract the attention of electric utilities again. To perform a decent DSM, beyond when and how much the demand will be, the utilities are facing another question: why is the electricity being consumed?...
This paper presents a new approach to short-term wind speed prediction. The chaotic time series analysis method is used to capture the characteristic of complex wind behavior in which a correlation dimension method is employed to calculate embedding dimension of the time series, then a mutual information method is used to determine the time delay. Based on the embedding dimension and time delay, support...
The deregulation of the Electricity sector in US has led to a tremendous increase in the inter-regional wholesale electricity trade between neighboring utilities or regions. Valuable insights into such imports/exports ahead of time have become crucial market intelligence for the various academicians and market players associated with the industry. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Box-Jenkins...
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