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We develop a possibility based model with the aim of helping firms to deal with difficult-to- predict catastrophic failures. Our study is motivated by the recent economic turmoil and recent large financial firm failures. Our results suggest that specialization is an alternative to portfolio diversification in predicting catastrophic events.
Terrorist acts are intentional and therefore differ significantly from "dumb" random acts that are the subject of most risk analyses. There is significant epistemic (state of knowledge) uncertainty associated with such intentional acts, especially for the likelihood of specific attack scenarios. Also, many of the variables of concern are not numeric and should be treated as purely linguistic...
Most of us recognize that when society's collective trends expose us to disasters which may threaten our survival, some rather radical, i.e., fundamental, actions may be necessary to forestall such untoward events. Yet, what signals might trigger such action? Pronouncements that the ldquoend is nearrdquo have not proven to be very effective, and rightfully so. We suggest rather that the impetus for...
A case is made for the use of a consensus theory measure in the form of the agreement measure to determine the risk associated with a mutual fund. Risk can be important in deciding on a stock purchase, or as a factor in determining how best to manage one's portfolio. The beta associated with each stock is used as the basis for the agreement calculation. The individual Beta's are processed by a clustering...
A substantial weakness of the risk-assessment guidelines adopted by four US Government agencies is their failure to properly reflect the inherent statistical and non-statistical uncertainties involved in risk measurement. This paper critically reviews the four-stage guideline developed by the National Research Council (NRC) in 1983 and adopted, de facto, by EPA, FDA, OSHA, and the Consumer Product...
Medical risk is assessed when clinical decisions are made for prediction in the individual patient. These involve usually diagnosis, choice of diagnostic testing or treatment. Evidence-based medicine is the accepted method by which medical risk is quantified. Evidence based medicine relies on scientific truth being defined from systemic observation of patients, the information from which is statistical,...
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