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Most electric power utilities utilize probability methods in the planning and operation of generating capacity. Deterministic criteria, however, are usually used in the planning and operation of composite generation and transmission or bulk electric power systems. The most commonly applied deterministic criteria dictate that specific credible outages should not result in system failure. The traditional...
The following topics are dealt with: uncertainty forecasting; wind generation; decision making; generation planning; load forecasting; power generation scheduling; ageing model; power system reliability; distributed generation; failure probability; transformer reliability; electricity markets; power equipment optimal allocation; power system protection; power system planning; and HVDC.
In power system planning and operation, accurate assessment of reliability worth is essential for making informed decisions. One common simplification when modeling power system reliability is assuming constant failure rates and non time-varying restoration times. However, historical outages show differently; failure rates and restoration times for especially overhead lines are dependent upon time-varying...
This paper proposes a new estimation technique of the load duration curve (LDC) which takes into account recent modifications of the load demand in the Tunisian power system (STEG) related to the increasing of the air conditioning load. This approach is based on the estimation of the hourly peak load distribution by asymmetric generalized Gaussian distribution (AGG). Numerical results indicate that...
This paper describes a probabilistic approach for assessing the criticality of bulk transmission system components in the de-regulated electricity market. The proposed method is based on the analysis performed by the Hydro One probabilistic composite system evaluation program and use of a simplified reliability model for the transmission system network. The method accounts for random failures of system...
There are two fundamentally different forms of uncertainty in power system reliability assessment. Aleatory uncertainty arises because the study system can potentially behave in many different ways. The component failure and repair processes are random and create variability known as aleatory uncertainty. There are also limitations in assessing the actual parameters of the key elements in a reliability...
Renewable energy grid connection is hampered by transmission capacity limitations and public opposition to new transmission development. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimal positions on an existing transmission system network to connect 'firm' wind capacity to reach desired renewable energy penetration targets in a secure, least-cost manner. The methodology accounts for geographical...
Reliable operation of power system is fundamental to the on-going industry reform. This paper presents the result of marginal power flow evaluation performed on Korean power system for planning mode. It uses two commercial software packages: physical and operational margins (POM V. 2.2) and probabilistic reliability assessment (PRA V. 3.1), respectively. The case studies of Korea power system for...
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