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This paper focuses on the application of risk-based models to cogeneration system planning in the presence of uncertainties. Starting from the electrical and thermal load patterns, and the electricity and gas prices for a reference year, the uncertain variables for the successive years of analysis (demand and energy prices) are represented by using average values and covariance matrices, taking into...
Knowledge of the reliability of power transformers is of growing importance to the asset manager. A method is presented for determining the reliability of a power transformer based on the mechanical strength of winding insulation paper. In addition to the modelling technique, there is a validation method for the modelling technique presented. The validation method depends on a good data management...
The impact of a pulse load charging event on a notional all-electric ship is investigated through simulation in the context of uncertainty in the parameters of the system and event. In order to efficiently carry out the study, the system is modeled on a large-scale parallel processor simulator. A surrogate modeling approach is used to characterize the behavior of the system for the purposes of sensitivity...
This paper proposes an optimization algorithm suitable to choose the optimal number and position of the measurement devices in active distribution networks. In active distribution networks distributed energy resources may be controlled and the topology modified to optimize power flows and to solve critical contingencies. The proposed algorithm, based on the techniques of the dynamic programming, has...
It is recognized today that short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. When considering different areas covering a region, they are produced independently, and thus neglect the interdependence structure of prediction errors, induced by movement of meteorological fronts,...
This paper presents an Bayesian approach for the estimation of sojourn time distribution parameters. Expert opinion and condition monitoring data can be used as source of information for the estimation. It is shown how expert opinion and data can be combined and how estimates for the parameters can be calculated by means of numerical methods. It is also discussed how expert uncertainty and systematic...
This paper illustrates the challenges associated with risk assessment for reinvestments decisions. A holistic framework for risk assessment in electricity distribution systems will be described first and then used to structure the analysis and decision making in a case study concerning cable reinvestment. These decisions are generally multi criteria decisions, including risks related to e.g.; economy,...
For many years, the electric power industry treated electricity as a unique commodity sold to costumers. Nowadays, the new electricity industry has identified several key ancillary services. Under this new scenario, the producer's primary goal is the selection of services in which to participate via assessing the potential profits as part of the decision-making. Purchasing additional information can...
Multi-stage decision making, a fundamental tenet of stochastic programming, resonates well with the practice of the electricity markets. The day-ahead market, used to commit the generators, bears uncertainty in the power demand and physical conditions of the generators and transmission lines. The situation becomes less uncertain in the real-time market, where the dispatch is decided. Although traditional...
There are two fundamentally different forms of uncertainty in power system reliability assessment. Aleatory uncertainty arises because the study system can potentially behave in many different ways. The component failure and repair processes are random and create variability known as aleatory uncertainty. There are also limitations in assessing the actual parameters of the key elements in a reliability...
This paper addresses the generation expansion-planning problem describing a model that generation companies can use to get insight to this problem and to more completely study and characterize different investment decisions. In the last 20 years, the generation activity evolved from a situation in which it was part of vertical companies to unbundled market agents that face a much more risky and uncertain...
This paper demonstrates a methodology for the optimal use of phase shifting transformers (PSTs) for the minimisation of the risk of congestion on power system lines. The methodology proposes as a first step the use of Monte-Carlo simulation for the assessment of the power flow distributions in the lines. It is shown that by using PSTs these distributions are shifted by specific factors that can be...
The output of a power system analysis mostly requires extensive knowledge and correct handling of input uncertainties. Analytical approaches often depend on simplified models whereas Monte Carlo based sampling methods are often time consuming. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis based on a limited number of well chosen samples which are used to model a stochastic response surface, based on...
Considerable research has been devoted on the development of decision-making models suitable for tackling decision problems integrating some amount of uncertainty. However, such approaches are either problem-specific, either too general to suit certain problems. In this paper we propose an approach for performing decision-making under uncertainty suitable for problems in which decisions must be made...
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