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The following topics are dealt with: uncertainty forecasting; wind generation; decision making; generation planning; load forecasting; power generation scheduling; ageing model; power system reliability; distributed generation; failure probability; transformer reliability; electricity markets; power equipment optimal allocation; power system protection; power system planning; and HVDC.
It is recognized today that short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. When considering different areas covering a region, they are produced independently, and thus neglect the interdependence structure of prediction errors, induced by movement of meteorological fronts,...
This paper reports new results in adopting entropy concepts to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined with a Parzen Windows estimation of the error pdf to form the basis of three criteria (MEE, MCC and MEEF) under which neural...
In this study, unit commitment (UC) problem is solved for an optimum schedule of generating units based on the load data forecasted by using artificial neural network (ANN) model and ANN model with autoregressive (AR). Low-cost generation is important in power system analysis. Under forecasting or over forecasting will result in the requirement of purchasing power from spot market or an unnecessary...
This paper analyzes the generation adequacy of Mexico's National Interconnected Power System (MNIPS). The algorithm used computes loss of load expectation (LOLE) and loss of energy expectation (LOEE) indexes. These indexes are calculated through an analytical (recursive) method and are then compared with values recommended by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC). The period of study...
This paper proposes a new estimation technique of the load duration curve (LDC) which takes into account recent modifications of the load demand in the Tunisian power system (STEG) related to the increasing of the air conditioning load. This approach is based on the estimation of the hourly peak load distribution by asymmetric generalized Gaussian distribution (AGG). Numerical results indicate that...
There are two fundamentally different forms of uncertainty in power system reliability assessment. Aleatory uncertainty arises because the study system can potentially behave in many different ways. The component failure and repair processes are random and create variability known as aleatory uncertainty. There are also limitations in assessing the actual parameters of the key elements in a reliability...
Better modelling and forecasting of very short-term power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms may significantly enhance control and management strategies of their power output. The paper introduces a new methodology for modelling and forecasting such very short-term fluctuations. The proposed methodology is based on a Markov-switching autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients. An advantage...
Wind energy on a power system alters the unit commitment and dispatch problem, as it adds a stochastic element due to the uncertainty of wind power forecasts. By explicitly taking into account the stochastic nature of wind power, it is expected that better schedules should be produced, thereby reducing costs on the system. This paper compares a stochastically optimised unit commitment and dispatch...
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