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This paper presents an Bayesian approach for the estimation of sojourn time distribution parameters. Expert opinion and condition monitoring data can be used as source of information for the estimation. It is shown how expert opinion and data can be combined and how estimates for the parameters can be calculated by means of numerical methods. It is also discussed how expert uncertainty and systematic...
This paper proposes a new estimation technique of the load duration curve (LDC) which takes into account recent modifications of the load demand in the Tunisian power system (STEG) related to the increasing of the air conditioning load. This approach is based on the estimation of the hourly peak load distribution by asymmetric generalized Gaussian distribution (AGG). Numerical results indicate that...
Value at Risk (VaR) is an appropriate method in financial world for evaluating risks. The method measures the losses within a considered time interval and a defined confidence level in actual currency. The simplicity and objectivity of VaR concludes to the idea to apply this method for power systems risk assessment. In this paper the methodology is applied for risk evaluation in the context of asset...
The output of a power system analysis mostly requires extensive knowledge and correct handling of input uncertainties. Analytical approaches often depend on simplified models whereas Monte Carlo based sampling methods are often time consuming. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis based on a limited number of well chosen samples which are used to model a stochastic response surface, based on...
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