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Under a market environments, there are a lot of uncertainties, such as fluctuation of power prices, shortage of fuel supply and rising of fuel prices, which make generators encounter serious profits loss risk. For stabilizing profits, it is necessary for generators to establish an efficient and optimal risk management technique mix. By adopting the real option, this paper establishes a real option...
An improved BP Neural Network with additional momentum and adaptive learning is proposed in the paper to predict the growth rate of electricity consumption in China. Matlab7 is used as modeling tool to design the model. Current year GDP growth, electric power consumption growth and growth rate of secondary industry are taken as input variables while next year electric power consumption growth is predicted...
Following the steady demand growth and diminishing generation capacity margin due to lack of generation investment, Slovenia is already importing almost a quarter of electricity needed to cover its demand. Coupled with the deregulated electricity market and the European Union (EU) climate change mitigation measures implemented through EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the economic as well as environmental...
This paper applies two methods to evaluate the economic effects of the policy of "replacing small units with large ones (RSWL)," one is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method which performs a technology economic analysis both from the financial and the economic perspectives, the other one is to use the Real Option theory to study the lagging investment problem of the big unit. Through an illustrative...
In the electricity market of imperfect competition, the behavior of generation bidding is affected by many risk factors, which include fuel price, weather condition, load forecasting and so on. The potential impact of bidding strategy is quantitative calculation, which adapted from risk factors; the risk management on bidding strategy choice is brought forward, and considering the diversity of risk...
This paper investigates the effect of debt financing in electric power listed company through an empirical research with the regression analysis method. According to the capital structure theory, the effect of debt financing lies in financial leverage effect, the tax shield effect and the company governance effect. Considering the characteristics of the electric power industry, we makes a detailed...
With the development of electricity market reformation in China, it is especially important to evaluate the competition competence of power generating enterprises. Based on the characteristics of their, this paper bring forwards an index system to evaluate the competition competence of power generating enterprises. SVMs are widely used in load forecasting and bioinformatics systems. Conventional methods...
The distributed generation (DG) acts an important role in the reliability of electric power system. In power market, with the rapid development of DG in recent years, it is necessary to discern and calculate the value of possible economic contract between the DG and the integrated main power grid, in which the DG and the main grid serve as reserve capacity for each other. The problem of possible options...
Power generation adequacy is critical for the reliability of electricity supply service, and therefore its investment draws much attention. This paper builds a dynamic simulation model to solve the setting of two key parameters, the energy price cap and the capacity price in the generation market, and applies this model to various cases to analyze the generation capacity development. Based on the...
Since the second half of 2007, the coal price in China has witnessed dramatic growth, the generation cost has gone up and power generation companies have got huge benefit losses. This essay analyzes the major reasons of coal price increase in China, predicts the future tendency of steam coal price and proposes policy suggestion to deal with rapid growth of coal price.
Electricity futures exchange is usually regarded as a valuable way to reduce price volatility of electricity market, but its risk to the equilibrium of the market is almost neglected; therefore, it is impossible to find out a workable approach to avoid the impact from supply and demand to electricity market. However, it is so important that it should not be avoided. In view of the case, this paper...
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