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Under a market environments, there are a lot of uncertainties, such as fluctuation of power prices, shortage of fuel supply and rising of fuel prices, which make generators encounter serious profits loss risk. For stabilizing profits, it is necessary for generators to establish an efficient and optimal risk management technique mix. By adopting the real option, this paper establishes a real option...
In safety-critical systems, components must be highly reliable. Once a component's reliability is lower than the criterion, it will be replaced and transferred to be used in another system which does not need such high reliability. The safety virtual age criterion not only relates with the cost of repair actions, but also with the repair degrees and the systempsilas wearing degrees. In this paper,...
By rough programming, we mean the optimization theory dealing with rough decision problems. This paper constructs a general framework of rough chance-constrained programming. We also design a spectrum of rough simulations for computing uncertain functions arising in the area of rough programming. To speed up the process of handling uncertain functions, we train a neural network to approximate uncertain...
According to the low sample and multifactor impact for long-medium term power load forecasting, the grey relational grade was used in screening factors, the combined model in BP neural network and SVM was established, and the multivariate variables and history load variables were used to roll prediction. The combined predictive values are obviously better than single method. Empirical study showed...
A framework of combining importance sampling with Structured Database Monte Carlo strategy is developed. The proposed method attempts to devise a generic method for designing importance sampling method. Firstly, evaluation function and objective function are expressed in a way that there is a linear relation between response estimator and majorized function. Order structure is imposed not only on...
As the security assessment of power production is a complicated multi-attribute evaluation problem, this paper applied the gray target assessment model of gray system theory to the security assessment of power production according to the system engineering theory. And using optimization theory and Jaynepsilas maximum entropy principle a method of determining the linear combination weights based on...
For a long time, China's coal-based energy structure, as well as thermal-power-led power structure, has caused serious environmental pollution problems. As the proportion of Chinapsilas power source structure is not so reasonable, it receives growing attention. To achieve the emissions constraints of major pollutants till the end of Eleventh Five-Year Plan, and optimize China's power structure, the...
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