It is very important that to establish a rational and quantitative mathematical model for the safety management of coal enterprises. The model can help managers to develop practical safety management objectives. It can help people find out the safety production trends also. In this paper, time discrete state equation on the principle of Cybernetics was used to study coal mine safety production model. The parameter identification method based on Kalman filter is also discussed in detail. Example shows that this model is superior to the traditional regression analysis models.