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In 1971, the authors produced a 30-year forecast of leisure in the UK. In 2001 they obtained survey data for comparison with the forecasts. The paper presents the original forecasts and describes the methods used to produce them, assesses their accuracy in the light of the survey data, and concludes with some reflections on the underlying forecasting methodology and on changes in leisure patterns.
In a recent paper in Futures, Chenoweth and Feitelson test of the validity of the projections of the Global 2000 Report to the President and The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global 2000. This commentary critiques their approach, focusing on their comparison of the two studies' Year 2000 projections, and the pitfalls for near-term tests of long-term projections. Empirically, their paper does little...
This essay outlines the characteristics of what I call the ‘totalitarian mindset’. Under certain circumstances, human beings engage in patterns of thinking and behavior that are extremely closed and intolerant of difference and pluralism. These patterns of thinking and behaving lead us towards totalitarian, anti-pluralistic futures. An awareness of how these patterns arise, how individuals and groups...
This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning...
While Chenoweth and Feitelson have done a service to the futures community by comparing the Global 2000 Report with The Resourceful Earth–two important books of the late 1970s/early 1980s—their comparison is flawed in three dimensions: (1) they treat the books as though they were intended to be accurate predictions of the future. Their intention, instead, was to influence public policy in certain,...
There is an on-going debate between neo-Malthusians and Cornucopians about the state and trends of the world's environment. Two key contributions to this debate were The Global 2000 Report to the President and, The Resourceful Earth, both published at the beginning of the 1980s and looking forward to the year 2000. This paper compares the predictions and analysis of the two reports with the situation...
The growth of global corporations is synonymous with the spread of market capitalism. Market capitalism looks to regulated market economies and stable growth to expand and this in turn assumes states committed to economic liberalisation and the reduction in the barriers to trade. Such preconditions are assumed achievable through the promotion of democratisation—the liberal democratic model of government,...
The article seeks to show how the issue of ethical corporations can be examined and challenged through the concept of corporate responsibility. Corporate responsibility first emerged as a term around 10 years ago with the rise of environmental reporting systems. At that time, the UNCED summit in Rio boosted the general level of consciousness concerning these issues and the first business-driven international...
The roles and responsibilities of business in society, in particular global business, are being defined more broadly by an expanding range of stakeholders. This paper aims to review these changes and their implications in order to understand better the likely future expectations of business in society and the way in which leading companies are setting new standards of responsible business practice...
The ethics of space is a recent phenomenon. Although ethical committees are already established in many fields of science and technology, the domain of astronautics is only very gradually following. There are many ethical issues to be addressed. These include the management of space debris, the legal status of space, inhabited space flights and the role of astronauts. Equally challenging are the economic...
‘Corporate Social Responsibility’ (CSR) has become the mainstream prescription by business and governments for dealing with social and environmental ills. It is a voluntary form of self-regulation that aims to tackle everything from human rights and labour standards to limiting carbon dioxide emissions that lead to climate change. But because CSR ultimately lies within the framework of markets, and...
The starting point of this paper is the fact that the one thing that is certain about the future is its uncertainty. While uncertainty has always been a constant of human life, the paper argues that due to technological and social developments, risk and uncertainty are going to be defining features that companies of the future will have to deal with. Given that almost all managerial and organisational...
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