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A simple analysis based on an upper bound elemental technique is presented for the incremental forging of a near-net shaped splined rotor shaft-type component formed using a cylindrical rod-type specimen. The results of an experimental investigation made into the working pressures and deformation modes observed during progressive forging of tellurium-lead specimens of different aspect (length to diameter) ratios into spline shaped components are compared with those predicted theoretically. The agreement was found to be reasonable and encouraging.