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The hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) is a component of the Bayesian forecasting system which produces a short-term probabilistic stage transition forecast (PSTF) based on a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF). The PSTF specifies a sequence of families of predictive one-step transition density functions whose product gives the predictive joint density function of the actual...
The second analytic-numerical Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) is presented. The purpose of this BFS is to produce a short-term probabilistic stage transition forecast (PSTF) based on a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) as an input and a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity) as a means of simulating the response of a headwater basin to precipitation.The river stage...
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