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The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental conditions on pathogen survival. A model describing the transmission of an infectious disease by means of a pathogenic state capable of surviving in an environmental...
Noroviruses (NoVs) are the major cause of acute epidemic gastroenteritis in industrialized countries. Outbreak strains are predominantly genogroup II (GII) NoV, but genogroup I (GI) strains are regularly found in oyster related outbreaks. The prototype Norwalk virus (GI), has been shown to have high infectivity in a human challenge study. Whether other NoVs are equally infectious via natural exposure...
Model-based studies of antiviral use to mitigate the impact of moderate and severe influenza pandemics implicitly take the viewpoint of a central public health authority. However, it seems likely that the key decision of when to use antivirals will be made at the household level. We used a stochastic compartmental model of the transmission of influenza within and between households to evaluate the...
The importance of considering coupled interactions across multiple population scales has not previously been studied for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the British commercial poultry industry. By simulating the within-flock transmission of HPAI using a deterministic S-E-I-R model, and by incorporating an additional environmental class representing infectious faeces, we tracked the build-up...
Disease models which take explicit account of heterogeneities in the risk of infection offer significant advantages over models in which the risk of infection is assumed to be uniform across all hosts. However, estimating the incidence rate (force of infection) in the different at-risk (exposure) groups is no easy matter. Classically, epidemiologists differentiate groups of hosts with different infection-risks...
Bovine spongiform encephalopathy, otherwise known as mad cow disease, can spread when an individual cow consumes feed containing the infected tissues of another individual, forming a one-species feedback loop. Such feedback is the primary means of transmission for BSE during epidemic conditions. Following outbreaks in the European Union and elsewhere, many governments enacted legislation designed...
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