Trying - that is, the initiation of thoughts and efforts directed at end-state goals such as a change in behavior - is key in understanding how smoking cessation and related behaviors succeed or fail. In the past, trying, especially in the context of consumption, was incorporated into traditional attitude models in an effort to predict behavior. However, such efforts have been frustrated by the problem of weak predictiveness, and lack of pragmatic, external validity. This article attempts to measure the impact of trying in a more direct way using a Markovian model. The findings suggest that the trying process is influenced most by the frequency of trying and the recency of past trying. The simulation approach followed in this study is believed to have direct impact on intervention programs directed at hard-core cigarette smokers, alcohol abusers, etc.PsycINFO classification: 2990; 3740; 3920