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The paper is concerned with the developments of risk analysis during the last decade, starting from full range quantitative risk analysis of e.g. a level crossing based on the CENELEC standards EN50126 and EN50129 up to semi-quantitative methods for risk analysis. To expedite this shift from pure quantitative approaches to a more categorized approach were the perennial challenges of insufficient availability...
The results of the first fire risk assessments on an international level have shown that fires are one major contributor to the risk of a nuclear power plant depending on the plant specific fire protection concept. Therefore, fire risk assessment has today become an integral part of the probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants in addition to deterministic analyses. Based on existing...
A number of international studies argue that there is a correlation between the number of traffic fatalities and the degree of public activity. The studies use the unemployment rate to support that argument. As unemployment grows miles travelled fall, a factor known to affect road safety. This relationship seems to be true for Poland, as well. The model presented in the paper is intended to prove...
Rambøll is on behalf of Femern A/S carrying out navigational studies of the vessel traffic conditions in the Fehmarnbelt in connection with the establishment of a future Fehmarnbelt fixed link, a 19 km long bridge or immersed tunnel connection crossing the Fehmarnbelt. The focus is on documenting safety and efficiency for the vessel traffic when a fixed link is crossing the Fehmarnbelt. Rambøll has...
Large-scale distributed transportation systems can pose various risks in terms of fatalities, environmental pollution, or loss of property. In particular, accident where a vehicle carrying large number of passengers is involved may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties, moreover it will immediately raise a public and political concern. This is an issue in case of maritime transportation...
In this work, algorithms have been used to compare the reliability measure of helicopter structure critical points. Reliability index, Cornell’s reliability index and Hasofer-Lind’s reliability index have been calculated and analysed. Inputs to the algorithms, stress and strength were generated by using the Markov chain model based on actual flight records of helicopters. With this approach, results...
The paper is concerned with the application of the original mathematical models and supporting them software technologies to forecast, analyze and optimize reliability and risks for complex systems (system is defined as a combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more stated purposes). Functionality and usability to analyze information system processes and standard processes...
We consider semi-Markov reliability models of multi-component systems with a discrete state space, general enough to include systems with maintenance or repair. We assume that for all system states the functioning or failure of each component is specified. In this setup we propose a component importance measure which is close in spirit to the classical steady state Barlow–Proschan importance measure...
Transport of dangerous goods are always under critical observation of the public, in particular in case of transport of spent fuel or radioactive waste. In both cases transports are often crossing borders of countries, e.g., waste resulting from reprocessing of spent fuel. The transports could take place by ships, trucks, rails and airplanes and these options and the resulting risks are compared....
A framework for decision analysis, which has been applied on an operational offshore system and is based on a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) process, is presented in this paper. This provides a generic methodology for the evaluation of alternatives and implementation of operational and design improvements based on the experience gained from past failures. The Failure Modes and Effects Analysis...
Networks are the widest spreading system which Mankind has ever developed, today. New needs, services, and use are created each day where network systems represent the most critical aspect. Additionally, the interconnection between networks of different types is growing as never. This acceleration of interconnection of all sorts brings to the front scene the issue of performance measure in networks...
In the paper the new results of the safety investigations of the multistate complex systems with dependent components at variable operation conditions called critical infrastructures are presented. The multi-state safety function of the critical infrastructure system is defined and determined for an exemplary critical infrastructure. In the developed models, it is assumed that the system components...
The paper explores the mathematical and computer modeling of complex technical systems related to their operation processes. The complex technical system with the reliability structure and components’ reliability parameters changing at the various operation states is defined. The selected system operation process parameters and the hypothetical distribution functions of the conditional sojourn times...
The aim of this article is to identify problems of the risk assessment of the electric / electronic / programmable electronic (E/E/PE) systems concentrating on the functional safety and security aspects. These aspects should be considered in an integrated way in the system life cycle. The role of functional safety solutions is effective reducing the risk from unacceptable level. The risk is defined...
In a Bayesian approach, there are two main sources of information about parameters of interest such as prior beliefs or the prior distribution of the parameter and the likelihood of observing the data given our expectations about the parameter. The prior distribution may be based on previous studies, literature reviews or expert opinions and indicates how we believe the parameter would behave if we...
The functional safety management in life cycle is a complex process starting with identifying hazards and defining safety-related functions (SRFs) with regard to the results of risk assessment oriented at determining the safety integrity level of consecutive functions. Another element of such process is a verification of required SIL for considered architectures of safety-related system that implements...
The subject and main purpose of this study is to present the method of risk analysis and assessment of the lack of water supply to the collective water supply system (CWSS). Presented method using the expected value of water scarcity. The analysis was based on all possible states of the operation of water production subsystem. The article contains calculation example of analysis for the exemplary...
The probability of an accident in transportation systems can serve as a measure of these systems safety or risk, depending on the objective. Therefore numerous methods and models for risk evaluation, with respect to maritime, have been developed. However, these models are either too simplified, allowing relatively fast analysis but very often missing the substantial links among the model variables,...
In this paper we discuss hardware implementations of the two best ciphers in the AES contest – the winner Rijndael and the Serpent – in low-cost, popular Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA). After presenting the elementary operations of the ciphers and organization of their processing flows we concentrate on specific issues of their implementations in two selected families of popular-grade FPGA...
There are presented the methods of the reliability prediction and optimization of complex technical systems related to their operation processes. The general model of the reliability of complex technical systems operating at variable operation conditions linking the semi-Markov modeling of their operation processes with the multistate approach to their reliability analysis and the linear programming...
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