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Summary. Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather‐related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain...
A controlled intervention study was performed in a paediatric hospital in Russia to improve antibiotic use and to see whether improvements persisted. During October–December 2002, clinical and microbiological data, antibiotic use, costs and outcome were recorded at two wards for gastrointestinal infections (GIIs) and two wards for respiratory tract infections (RTIs). Guidelines for diagnosis and treatment...
Exceedances over high thresholds are often modeled by fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) on R+. It is difficult to select the threshold, above which the GPD assumption is enough solid and enough data is available for inference. We suggest a new dynamically weighted mixture model, where one term of the mixture is the GPD, and the other is a light-tailed density distribution. The weight...
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