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Power sector restructuring has prompted the application of modern portfolio theory among market participants. Much research has been devoted to power portfolio optimization problems. However, the portfolio composition adopted in literature is rather hypothetical than realistic. From an engineering perspective, it is necessary to use real traded contract products to construct the portfolio. In this...
The daily clearing price curve in electricity market varied with multi-period and strong fluctuation characteristic. When grey GM (1, 1) model is used in forecast, the forecast error exceeded the permitted precision. This is because GM (1, 1) model is invalidated only if the price series did not follow the rule of exponential growth. In this case, grey model with period residual modification is proposed,...
Reclaim of electricity fee, which is ordinarily called as receivables in distribution management system, is very important for public utility, especially in the circumstance of electricity market, and to predict which credit types the clients would be is one of the most important work. Based on the data of MIS and objection of credit management, a practical credit index is designed. With the ANFIS...
Although China is abundant in renewable resources, the development level of green power is rather low as it contributes less power to the society compared with conventional power. After drawing a comparison of domestic and overseas situations of green power development, this paper discusses the obstacle to green power existed nowadays in China and the impetus to development. Then a new market mode...
This paper analyzes different bidding strategies of hydro-thermal suppliers, taking into account the changes of power demand and the unit's limits. In order to gain maximal profit, hydropower suppliers (except for cascade hydropower stations) are equivalent to thermo-power suppliers in this paper. And Nash equilibrium equations are proposed when different bidding parameters are selected to maximize...
In the circumstance of electricity market, it is very necessary for an electric utility to be clear about market distribution of residential energy consumption in future. with the data from Qinhuangdao electricity market investigation, Markov model with grey transfer probability matrix have been constructed on residential energy consumption items such as heating, cooking, cooling etc., we could do...
On the basis of analyzing the reasons bringing on electricity charge arrears and utilizing the gettable data, the key variables effecting on the charge arrears which are needed in arrear recognition risk are designed. By means of logistic regression theory which is commonly used in dealing with bi-category problem, we established the model which can recognize the possibility of electric power clients'...
It is very necessary to be clear about the market share that electricity accounts for the whole energy consumption of city residents' under the circumstance of market, with Markov prediction theory and data from Qinhuangdao electricity market investigation, forecast have been done on market share of residential energy consumption items such as heating, cooking, cooling etc., which is valuable reference...
An improved method using real option theory is proposed in this paper for evaluation of generation asset investment in spot market under the deregulated environment. The adjusted model for the mean reversion process with long-term periodic mean is employed to describe the special characteristics of electricity price such as fluctuation, uncertainty and periodicity. In particular, the system operation...
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