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The upper tail problem in the Erdős–Rényi random graph G∼Gn,p asks to estimate the probability that the number of copies of a graph H in G exceeds its expectation by a factor 1+δ. Chatterjee and Dembo showed that in the sparse regime of p→0 as n→∞ with p≥n−α for an explicit α=αH>0, this problem reduces to a natural variational problem on weighted graphs, which was thereafter asymptotically solved...
What is the probability that the number of triangles in , the Erdős‐Rényi random graph with edge density p, is at least twice its mean? Writing it as , already the order of the rate function r(n, p) was a longstanding open problem when p = o(1), finally settled in 2012 by Chatterjee and by DeMarco and Kahn, who independently showed that for ; the exact asymptotics...
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