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This paper deals with the forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) landed intensity change problem in which multi-level and multi-attribute decision are considered. A novel index model of tropical cyclone intensity change based on projection pursuit (PP) and evolution strategy (ES) is proposed to forecast the TC intensity change. We propose to use projection pursuit to project the high-dimensional TC...
Tropical Cyclone (TC) track prediction is still a big and unsolved problem from the perspectives of theory and application due to the complicated and non-linear physical mechanisms and lack of calculating capabilities and observations. Neural Network works effectively and efficiently in simulating non-linear relationships. Therefore, the present study employs the BP-neural network to predict TC tracks...
There are some small-sample cases in economic forecast, for lacking of quantitative information, in which it happens that some given forecasting method fits well while behaves badly in forecasting, while to the contrary, the situation behaves well when we make the combination of both qualitative and quantitative methods in forecasting. The concept of risk of forecasting is defined, as well as the...
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