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A statistical model for predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has been proposed. The model is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. The model parameters are determined from the database of 62 cyclones that developed over the Bay of Bengal during the period 1981–2000. The parameters selected as predictors are: initial storm intensity, intensity changes...
One very specific operational requirement of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Programme of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, New Delhi is to provide 12-hourly forecasts valid up to 48 h (preferably 72 h) on the intensity of cyclones over the southern Indian Seas. In this paper, a simple empirical model for predicting the intensity of TCs occurring in the Bay of Bengal is proposed. The model...
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