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The multilateral trading system, first established formally in 1947 with the goal of bringing about sustainable peace and greater prosperity through increased cross‐border commerce underpinned by globally agreed upon rules, has contributed significantly to economic development and reduced poverty. However, as the global trading system enters the 2020s it cannot rely on past success and must adapt...
The WTO Global Trade Model, a quantitative trade model, is employed to project the impact on the global economy of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Because of the profound uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and the containment measures, three scenarios are constructed, V‐shaped, U‐shaped and L‐shaped recovery, corresponding with a duration of the pandemic of 3 months, 6 months and more than a year...