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The paper investigates the ability of oil price returns, oil price shocks and oil price volatility to provide predictive information on the state (high/low risk environment) of the US stock market returns and volatility. The disaggregation of oil price shocks according to their origin allows us to assess whether they contain incremental forecasting power compared to oil price returns. Overall, the...
This study examines the time-varying correlations between oil prices shocks of different types (supply-side, aggregate demand and oil-market specific demand as per Kilian (2009) who highlighted that “Not all oil shocks are alike”) and stock market returns, using a Scalar-BEKK model. For this study we consider the aggregate stock market indices from two countries, China and the US, reflecting the most...
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