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People often face the challenge of evaluating competing explanations. One approach is to assess the explanations’ relative probabilities–for example, applying Bayesian inference to compute their posterior probabilities. Another approach is to consider an explanation's qualities or “virtues,” such as its relative simplicity (i.e., the number of unexplained causes it invokes). The current work investigates...
Occam's razor—the idea that all else being equal, we should pick the simpler hypothesis—plays a prominent role in ordinary and scientific inference. But why are simpler hypotheses better? One attractive hypothesis known as Bayesian Occam's razor (BOR) is that more complex hypotheses tend to be more flexible—they can accommodate a wider range of possible data—and that flexibility is automatically penalized...
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