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In this paper, we introduce a quantitative methodology that performs the interval estimation of wind speed, calculates the operation probability of wind turbine, and forecasts the wind power output. The technological advantage of this methodology stems from the empowered capability of mean and volatility forecasting of wind speed. Based on the real wind speed and corresponding wind power output data...
Accurately modeling the mean and volatility of wind speed can be beneficial to effective wind energy utilization. For this purpose, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of autoregressive moving average–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA–GARCH) approaches for modeling the mean and volatility of wind speed. Five different GARCH approaches are included, and each consists...
Wind speed forecasting is critical for the operations of wind turbine and penetration of wind energy into electricity systems. In this paper, a novel time series forecasting method is proposed for this purpose. This method originates from TK (Taylor Kriging) model, but is properly modified for the forecasting of wind speed time series. To investigate the performance of this new method, the wind speed...
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