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Aiming to inform both marine management and the public, coupled environmental-climate scenario simulations for the future Baltic Sea are analyzed. The projections are performed under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (medium and high-end) and three nutrient load scenarios spanning the range of plausible socio-economic pathways. Assuming an optimistic scenario with perfect implementation of...
Compared to other phytoplankton groups, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria generally prefer high water temperatures for growth and are therefore expected to benefit from global warming. We use a coupled biological-physical model with an advanced cyanobacteria life cycle model to compare the abundance of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea during two different time periods (1969–1998; 2069–2098). For the latter,...
Oxygen and phosphorus dynamics and cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea are discussed using results from the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO). The high-resolution circulation model is used to simulate the time period from 1902 to 1998 using reconstructed physical forcing and climatological nutrient loads of the late 20th century...
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