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Interannual winter rainfall variability and its predictability are analysed over the Arabian Peninsula region by using observed and hindcast datasets from the state‐of‐the‐art European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal prediction System 4 for the period 1981–2010. An Arabian winter monsoon index (AWMI) is defined to highlight the Arabian Peninsula as the most representative...
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