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Economic theories are often formulated as a system of structural equations. These structural equations imply genuinely causal relations, i.e., we regard the right-hand side variables as the causes and the left-hand side variables as the effects. In this paper we show that regression is not the proper way to infer causal relations. Based on the theory of inferred causation we propose a method to derive...
We develop a constrained bivariate switching model to explore empirically the behavior of wage and price Phillips-curves for high- and low-inflation regimes. Using this switching regression technique with a structural simultaneous equations model of Phillips curves, we identify significant lower floors for wage and price inflation. We interpret these lower floors as the relevant downward rigidity...
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