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We assess the occurrence and probability of extreme heat over Australia in association with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea, and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which have previously been shown to be key drivers of intra-seasonal variations of Australian climate. In this study, extreme heat events are defined as occurring when weekly-mean maximum temperature...
We assess the depiction and prediction of blocking at 140°E and its impact on Australian intra-seasonal climate variability in the Bureau of Meteorology’s dynamical intra-seasonal/seasonal forecast model Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia version 2 (POAMA-2). The model simulates well the strong seasonality of blocking but underestimates its strength and frequency increasingly with lead...
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