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Given the current financial crisis, there is renewed interest in modelling how the price of commodities change in the market. Traditionally, such models have assumed constant parameters. However, large and sudden changes in the parameters can also be anticipated due to market shocks. This paper is aimed at addressing this issue. We first describe a bias-variance trade-off in parameter estimation when...
In this paper we show that the variance of estimated parametric models for open loop Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems obtained by the prediction error method (PEM) satisfies a fundamental integral limitation. The fundamental limitation gives rise to a multivariable `waterbed' effect.
This paper investigates the use of an imaginary power based speed estimation algorithm for induction machines. The algorithm investigated was first proposed by Peng and Fukao in 1994, and has some very desirable characteristics such as insensitivity to knowledge of stator resistance, and does not use pure integrations. However, it has been shown that the algorithm does not operate stably under regeneration...
There are three key elements that iterative estimation/controller design techniques require: a closed loop idenification procedure to yield an improved model, an uncertainty quantification procedure that captures the validity range of the new model, and a design procedure that utilises both the model and its uncertainty to generate an improved controller. This paper reports a novel iterative procedure...
This paper illustrates the application of an integrated approach to adaptive control by reference to the case study problem proposed by Mike Masten and Herb Cohen. The underlying philosophy of our approach includes the integration of robust and adaptive control and the unification of continuous and discrete systems theory. A feature of the examples presented below is that they have been run in real...
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