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A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission, refine existing transmission models, and improve disease forecasts.We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak and capture epidemic profiles ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth. We test the...
The outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has caused 209 deaths and 699 laboratory-confirmed cases in the Arabian Peninsula as of June 11, 2014. Preparedness efforts are hampered by considerable uncertainty about the nature and intensity of human-to-human transmission, with previous reproduction number estimates ranging from 0.4 to 1.5. Here we synthesize epidemiological...
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