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Effective use of available water resources is a serious problem facing the world as it enters the 21st century. An important source of concern to water resources managers is the occurrence of severe and sustained droughts that deplete reservoir storage to dangerous levels. Such droughts are often associated with low frequency climatic fluctuations, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)....
This paper is the last in a series of three in the current issue that present a framework for long-term rainfall probabilistic forecasts. A nonparametric probabilistic forecast model is presented. The approach is based on accurate estimation of the conditional probability distribution of rainfall through the use of nonparametric kernel density estimation techniques. The kernel approach is data driven...
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