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For economic operation of distribution system with charging stations, forecasting of charging load becomes important. Based on the load data from charging posts, the first step is to distinguish whether the time sequence is stationary or non-stationary. Then with theory of time series analysis, the dynamic model is properly constructed and is used in forecasting after the model is verified to meet...
This paper proposes a model for analysis of life cycle cost (LCC) of the transmission systems. First, to build the model of LCC of the transmission systems, the whole LCC process of components is divided into five costs, i.e., initial cost, operating cost, maintenance cost, fault cost and disposal cost. Second, during the calculation of the maintenance cost, the grey system theory is employed to predict...
In order to improve the accuracy of electricity consumption forecasting in smart grid, a novel penalized weighted kernel partial least squares algorithm is presented. The original inputs are mapped into a high dimensional feature space to realize the linearization of nonlinear problems. The partial least squares algorithm is used to extract the principal component to reduce the dimensional of data...
Wind power forecasting is one of the key technical issues for a power system integrated with a large amount of wind farms. Based on analysis of the variation characteristics of wind speed, we applied econometrics theory into the modeling of wind speed, since GARCH has an excellent performance to tracing the variation of those fluctuating sequences. Using the wind power curve, the power output of a...
The daily clearing price curve in electricity market varied with multi-period and strong fluctuation characteristic. When grey GM (1, 1) model is used in forecast, the forecast error exceeded the permitted precision. This is because GM (1, 1) model is invalidated only if the price series did not follow the rule of exponential growth. In this case, grey model with period residual modification is proposed,...
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