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In power generating industry, load forecasting plays an important part. In oder to improve the economic and social benefits, and to help the decision of construction of generating plant, the forecasting of electric demand is necessary. According to the actual situation and method of grey theory, and by using the grey model, we try to found out the electricity consumption of the the next 5 years.
This paper describes the basic principle of seasonal multiplicative model in time series and the GARCH model, applies the former to forecast the monthly peak load, and then uses the latter to amend the forecasting error. Calculating the real data of a regional power grid, results show the forecasting precision and effect of the error modifying model.
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