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Based on the analysis of the failure on orbit in the past years, the probability of failure is small, but it brought serious impact and the specific economic loss. In this paper, a method of fault prediction is proposed based on the time series method and the regression analysis method, which can predict the impending failure of the spacecraft based on the prognostics data. The maintenance plan can...
This paper proposes a novel decision QoS (Quality of Service) model for multipath transmission based on Markov model. Specifically, the model consists of three units: information acquisition unit, computing unit and decision-making unit. The responsibility of information acquisition unit is to collect status information of each path. Then the computing unit, the most critical unit, put the Mark off...
A finite element model for supercavitating underwater vehicles is developed considering the effect of the connection surfaces between cabins on the structural dynamic response. The frequency and transient dynamic analyses are performed, and the performance of supercavitating underwater vehicles with configurations of flanged and sleeve connections is investigated. The numerical results show that the...
In stamping process, springback is always determined by process parameters, such as blank-holder force, mould parameters, material parameters, and so on. Prediction of springback and parameters is a multi-objective optimization problem. Firstly, based on the same quantity of orthogonal experimental samples, prediction accuracy and efficiency of back propagation neural network (BPNN) prediction model...
In the deep-drawing process of sheet metal, accuracy, consistency and formability of products always determined by the variable blank holder force (VBHF). So, the accuracy of predicted reference input VBHF curves, the response performance of hydraulic actuators, and the tracing performance of machine controller are key technologies which determine the control performance of VBHF. Firstly, outline...
Wind speed prediction is crucial for electricity system security and planning. In this paper, ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method is employed to predict 10 minutes averaged wind speed. We use Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model as the state function of EnKF, perturb initial wind data to generate ensembles and forecast wind speed data via EnKF. The comparison with in-situ measurements...
Passenger traffic forecast is significant for the study of the change of passenger transport capacity. Forecasting passenger traffic scientifically is very important for decision-making of transportation development strategies. This paper analyzes the factors of passenger traffic, and describes the principle of the grey-Markov chain. Then we divide these factors into two categories: supply factors...
This paper presents a roll state estimator and a rollover prediction model based on a real-time roll estimator. The real-time roll estimator is designed to estimate the current roll angle and roll rate of the vehicle body from a 3DOF vehicle model. The veDYNA dynamic simulation software was used to verify the performance of roll motion prediction. The prediction model calculates the time it takes...
Based on radial basis function (RBF) kernel, a new self-adaptive method to optimize the least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) parameters, the width of kernel parameter sigma and the LS-SVM regularization parameter gamma are proposed. Detailed methodology steps of this algorithm method are presented. Compared with back propagation neural networks (BPNN), various simulation experiments for...
Campus networkpsilas Internet accessing traffic is complicated, non-linear and periodical. Our goal is to give out a engineering approach to prediction of network traffic based time-series analysis model (EPTS) for campus exit-link. In our EPTS with rate-limiting, we configure rate limit based interface, then use time-series decomposed model, give out the linear trend component, periodical component,...
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