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The objective of this paper was to forecast the number of monthly new outbreaks of Swine Pasteurellosis with ARMA model. The forecasting model was constructed using the data from Jan. 2005 to Dec. 2008 and was validated by the data in 2009. The method employed inspection of the run plots and ACF plots in the determination of the order d of differencing and the parameters of ARMA model. Normalized...
Objective: The outbreak of animal infectious diseases directly affects the economic benefits of livestock and poultry production, and even threatens the safety of human life. And due to the specificity of livestock and poultry production, the infectious diseases will be difficult to control by medical treatment means when outbreak in groups. Knowing the outbreak and development of infectious diseases...
Objective: The mathematical model prediction has been widely recognized among many disease forecasting methods. But different models will show out distinct prediction results of different diseases, as well as their occurrence locations. In this study, ARMA, exponential smoothing and seasonal index model were adopted for predicting incidence of Newcastle disease, and evaluating the precision of these...
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