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The paper is concerned with the application of the model of critical infrastructure safety prediction with considering its operation and climate-weather change impacts. The general approach to the prediction of critical infrastructure safety and resilience is proposed and the safety and resilience indicators are defined for a critical infrastructure impacted by its operation process and the climate-weather...
The method based on the results of the joint model linking a semi-Markov modelling of the critical infrastructure operation process with a multistate approach to critical infrastructure safety and linear programming are proposed to the critical infrastructure operation and safety optimization. This method determining the optimal values of limit transient probabilities at the critical infrastructure...
The general model of a critical infrastructure changing its safety structure, its components safety parameters and its operation cost during the variable operation process and linear programming are applied to optimize the critical infrastructure operation process in order to get the critical infrastructure operation cost optimal value. The optimization problem allowing to find the optimal values...
The main aim of this paper is to present the general safety analytical models of complex multistate technical systems related to their operation processes including operating environment threats. In the case of critical infrastructure, the determination of its safety function and its risk function, which graph corresponds to the fragility curve are defined. Moreover, its mean lifetime up to the exceeding...
The paper is concerned with an application of the critical infrastructure operation process related to climate-weather change model to identification and prediction of this process for maritime ferry. There are distinguished four different processes for the corresponding ferry operating area. Further, using identified parameters of the ferry operation process and the ferry operating area climate-weather...
The paper presents the general safety analytical model of a complex technical system under the influence of the operation process including its operating environment threats related to climate-weather change process, The system operation process including environment threats under influence of climate-weather variable conditions is defined. Moreover, the safety model of multistate systems at variable...
The paper presents Monte Carlo simulation method applied to the reliability evaluation of a multistate system subjected to a variable multistate operation process. The system operation process model is linked with the system reliability model and proposed to get a general reliability model of the complex system operating at varying in time operation conditions and to find its reliability characteristics...
This paper presents the computer simulation technique related to the reliability of an object under variable operation conditions. The considered object operation process is modelled using semi-Markov processes and its reliability is analysed by application of the conditional reliability functions in its different operation states. The backgrounds and procedures of the Monte Carlo simulation method...
The unknown parameters of the exemplary object operation process are identified, its operation states are defined and the main characteristics of the Semi-Markov analytical method are determined. The reliability characteristics for the considered object at the variable operation conditions are determined. Additionally, it is assumed that the conditional reliability functions are different at various...
The paper explores the mathematical and computer modeling of complex technical systems related to their operation processes. The complex technical system with the reliability structure and components’ reliability parameters changing at the various operation states is defined. The selected system operation process parameters and the hypothetical distribution functions of the conditional sojourn times...
This paper presents the computer simulation technique related to the reliability of an object under variable operation conditions. The Monte Carlo simulation is performed and, consequently, the unknown parameters for the considered object operation process and its main reliability characteristics are identified. The optimal transient probabilities of the object operation process at the particular...
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