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Few health crises have been as predictable as the unfolding obesity pandemic. Clinical and public health services remain the front line of efforts to reduce the burden of obesity. While a range of clinical practice guidelines exist, the need for clinical interventions exceeds the capacity of health systems to provide care for those affected with obesity, and routine clinical practices fall far short...
Mortality forecasts are typically limited in that they pertain only to national death rates, predict only all‐cause mortality or do not capture and utilize the correlation between diseases. We present a novel Bayesian hierarchical model that jointly forecasts cause‐specific death rates for geographic subunits. We examine its effectiveness by applying it to US vital statistics data for 1979–2011 and...
Estimates of excess mortality associated with exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter have been obtained from either a single cohort study or pooling information from a small number of studies. However, standard frequentist methods of pooling are known to underestimate statistical uncertainty in the true risk distribution when the number of studies pooled is small. Alternatively,...
BACKGROUND:Although surveillance for Barrett esophagus and other gastrointestinal precancerous conditions is recommended, no analogous guidelines exist for gastric lesions. The objective of this study was to estimate the clinical benefits and cost‐effectiveness of treatment and endoscopic surveillance to prevent gastric cancer.
METHODS:The authors developed a state‐transition decision model for a...
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