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Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities based on fault length and slip rate, along with an earthquake empirical model subject to a model error of 0.26 Mw. The AFOSM analysis shows that the probability could...
Extreme weather has recently caused many disasters worldwide. In August 8, 2009, Southern Taiwan suffered from serious floods during Typhoon Morakot. In this extreme rainfall event, the Chiuliao first levee in the Laonong River basin experienced catastrophic failure. Therefore, this study focuses on the levee failure mechanisms based on variations in levee water levels. Specifically, this study investigates...
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