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The prime-boost HIV vaccine regimen used in the recent RV144 trial resulted in modest efficacy of 31% over 3.5 years, but was substantially higher in the first year post-vaccination. We sought to explore the potential impact of a vaccine with rapidly waning efficacy in a South African population.We explored two strategies using a dynamic compartmental epidemic model for heterosexual transmission of...
Although published data from the recent ALVAC/AIDSVAX trial in Thailand (RV144) indicated the HIV vaccine provided very modest protection overall (31.2%), new analysis of trial data has suggested higher efficacy levels earlier in the follow-up period. CDC and UNAIDS organized several modeling research teams to explore the implications of the trial results and potential utility of this vaccine.We explored...
Circumcision significantly reduces female-to-male transmission of HIV infection, but changes in behavior may influence the overall impact on transmission. We sought to explore these effects, particularly for societies where women have less power to negotiate safe sex. We developed a compartmental epidemic model to simulate the population-level impact of various circumcision programs on heterosexual...
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