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With the utility function considering power producers' risk factor, a learning model for power bidding to stochastic demand is presented, and whose stable condition is analyzed. Then the simulation of power market consisted of three power producers is done, in which the bifurcation and chaos control of the learning model is discussed, the analysis indicates that, (1) the chaos of bidding learning...
This paper employed the theory of real option to analyze investment decision-making for power generator in a completely competitive power market, a investment threshold model considered power bidding of power generator and their quadratic production cost function was presented. The results of the model were simulated and analyzed with the Matlab software, and the results indicated that the main conclusions...
Based on the bounded rational dynamics and adaptive dynamics,this paper presents power producer bidding Cournot model, bidding dynamic model and delayed bidding dynamic model respectively, analyzes the stable region, bifurcation and chaos of bidding dynamic models by simulation method and compares stable regions of the two dynamic bidding models and the average revenue of power producer.The results...
Demand function is partially known by all producers in electric power market, which is a important factor for power producers to choose their optimal bidding strategy. This paper presents a dynamic learning model, based on the discrepancy between the expected price of power producers and the price they actually observe, which has a unique steady state, where any subjective demand function coincides...
This paper proposes three econometric AR-EGARCH models, whose error is governed by normal, students' t and GED distribution respectively, to nine o'clock spot price serial of Nordpool power market from 2001 to 2005 year. In addition, POT method of extreme value theory is adopted to model the tails of the return distribution, and the parameters of GPD distribution are estimated, then VaR and CVaR are...
This paper analyzes the historical data of power bidding with econometrics method, and simulates the uncertainty of bidding market into logistic distribution. Based on the results, the risk-constrained power bidding strategy model is proposed by using the CVaR method. Finally, the simulation results of the model show that the equilibrium bid is the lower limit governed by market rule to risk-averse...
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